New-vehicle sales are expected to drop 2 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.41 million units in September 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. 

"Kelley Blue Book expects a strong September 2016 at a pace of 17.4 million SAAR, but most year-over-year figures likely will be negative due to an extraordinarily strong September 2015," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "It is too close to call right now, but at this point in the year, there is a good chance the 2016 totals will fall just short of the 2015 record, marking that the sales peak has passed.  Still, the major economic indicators point to sustained high new-vehicle sales levels for the foreseeable future."

After a record U.S. sales total in 2015, Kelley Blue Book's full-year forecast for 2016 calls for sales in the range of 17.3 to 17.6 million, which would range from a 1 percent decrease to a possible 1 percent increase. 

Key Highlights for Estimated September 2016 Sales Forecast:

• In September 2016, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,410,000 units, down 2 percent from September 2015 and down 6 percent from August 2016.

• The seasonally adjusted annual rate for September 2016 is estimated to be 17.4 million, down from 18 million in September 2015 and up from 16.9 million in August 2016.

• Retail sales are expected to account for 85.5 percent of volume in September 2016, down from 85.8 percent in September 2015.

Ford to Report Biggest Decline of All Major Automakers; Subaru Crossovers Help Offset Decline in Car Sales

Ford Motor Company could report one of the biggest declines of all major automakers, with volume expected to fall 9 percent.  Ford's car lineup, including Fusion, Focus and Fiesta, will be responsible for most of the drop and could fall 20 percent in September.  Fleet sales below normal levels also could have a major impact on Ford's September sales.  Ford has been public about their fleet orders being frontloaded this year, with the expectation of a significant drop-off in fleet in the later months of 2016.  Ford fleet sales in September could be down 20 percent.

"Following a big month in August, Subaru of America may capture the most market share in September," said Fleming.  "Similar to most other manufacturers, Subaru's car lineup sales are down this year.  However, Subaru's popular crossovers like the Forester and Outback are selling quickly, averaging around 25 days in dealer inventory, and should help Subaru reach yet another record month."

Compact SUV Segment to Climb to 19 Percent in Market Share; Mid-Size Cars Down Nearly 200,000 Units Year-to-Date

Once again, the compact SUV segment continues to grow in popularity, and Kelley Blue Book experts anticipate the segment's market share to climb to 19 percent in September.  Models at the top of the segment, including the Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4 and Nissan Rogue, should drive most of the segment's strength. 

On the other hand, the mid-size car segment is down the most of any segment, nearly 200,000 units year-to-date, and this trend is expected to continue with an average 17 percent decline in September.  Models in this category are facing competition from increased consumer interest in compact utility vehicles and newer subcompact SUVs that have entered the market in the last two years, which are transacting around the same price. 

There are 25 sales days in September 2016 and September 2015.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.