On Tuesday, the business deans from Columbus State University and the University of Georgia hosted more than 200 local business leaders for an analysis of Georgia’s 2024 economic outlook. The event was part of the UGA Terry College of Business’ annual economic outlook statewide tour designed to share insights into the national, state and local factors shaping the economy for the coming year.

Dr. Deborah Kidder, dean of the D. Abbott Turner College of Business & Technology, headlined the lunchtime event with Dr. Benjamin Ayers, dean of the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business. Ayers declared the state’s economy is heading for a “soft landing” in 2024 as it fully recovers from some COVID-era challenges, while also outpacing the nation in several key performance indicators.

“Georgia is well positioned to weather an economic slowdown and our economy will outperform the U.S. economy,” Ayers said, drawing from analysis by economic forecasters in UGA’s Selig Center for Economic Growth. “The build-out of many large projects in the economic development pipeline and favorable demographics are the main reasons why Georgia will fare better than the nation.”

Georgia’s post-COVID economic expansion is expected to slow but continue, with its gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 1.1% in 2024. While smaller than the 3% growth rate Georgia saw in 2023, the state will continue to outpace the national GDP growth rate, which forecasters project to be 0.8% in 2024.

The probability that Georgia will slip into recession is 33%, Ayers (pictured) said, compared to around 50% for the U.S. The number of jobs will rise by 0.7% in 2024, which is slower compared to the 2.3% gain estimated for Georgia in 2023 — but higher than the national job growth rate of 0.3%.

“On closing, our forecast calls for an economic slowdown, but not a recession,” Ayers said. “Our forecast depends on the resilient labor market and the strong financial positions of households to sustain the post-pandemic economic expansion.”

THE CHATTAHOOCHEE VALLEY’S OUTLOOK

Like Ayers, Kidder lauded several key industries as boosting both workforce development and economic projections in the region. Noteworthy among those are Pratt & Whitney’s current $206 million expansion of its Columbus Engine Center, Daesol Ausys’ $72 million investment in a Harris County-based manufacturing facility, and the recently announced relocation of the Atlanta Braves Double-A franchise from Pearl, Mississippi, to Columbus’ Golden Park. She also credited the community’s leisure, hospitality, healthcare, military and financial sectors as bolstering the region’s overall economic stability.

Of greatest concern to civic and business leaders is Columbus’ slow population growth. While the Selig Center’s research points to annual statewide population growth of 0.7% in 2024 (more than double the 0.3% national average), Kidder underscored outmigration concerns as Columbus residents relocate to Atlanta and Auburn, Alabama — especially in search of higher paying and high-tech jobs.

Kidder also pointed to positives that bode well for Columbus, especially for attracting new residents and retaining current ones. Chief among those is the region’s low cost of living, as well as single-family home price gains remaining below the statewide average — the latter tied to slow population growth and the expectation that housing prices will remain in check for the current year.

Drawing from survey data collected by the Turner College’s Butler Center for Research & Economic Development, area residents list rising prices as their top concern — buttressed by related financial concerns involving income, affordable healthcare and debt. Crime followed as a close second.

In the same survey, business owners were cautious regarding their sales revenue projections for 2024, considering 36% reported that sales revenue declined in 2023. Equally concerning for them is finding qualified employees to fill vacancies. On the plus side, however, 62% of business owners reported hiring in the last year, and only 10% reported layoffs; over half expect to hire additional employees during the next 12 months.

STRENGTHENING THE LOCAL WORKFORCE

In welcoming everyone to the Georgia Economic Outlook presentation, Columbus State President Stuart Rayfield spoke of the university’s mission and how it aligns with the analysis provided by the Terry College and Turner College.

“Our mission is to serve this region, so it’s vitally important that [Columbus State University] is lockstepped and aligned with the economic development that is going on in this community,” she said.

Hearing local employers’ calls for workforce development help, Rayfield spoke of a new partnership initiative with business and human resource leaders to explore how Columbus State can better align its educational mission with what’s next for the region. Those leaders credited the state’s colleges and universities like Columbus State with preparing students through existing degree programs. What employers needed in the post-graduate workforce was deeper experience in what Rayfield calls “career-ready competencies” — skills like adaptability, communication, problem-solving and critical thinking.

“We are working to redesign our general education core curriculum to truly meet those career-ready competencies,” Rayfield explained. “That goes along with what we’re doing here today — talking about what that economic forecast looks like. [Columbus State University] will be providing the workforce for whatever this forecast holds, and it’s imperative that [we are] sitting at the table and understanding what the needs of our industry partners are so that we can meet those needs.”