Americans More Positive About Democratic Than GOP Convention

Jeffrey M. Jones

Tuesday, August 2nd, 2016

Americans are evenly divided on whether they view the Democratic Party more favorably (44%) or less favorably (42%) after the party's national convention last week. However, their ratings of the Republican Party after the GOP convention two weeks ago were significantly worse, with 35% saying they viewed the party more favorably and 52% less favorably.

Effect of Conventions on Images of the Democratic and Republican Parties

From what you have seen or heard about this week's [Democratic/Republican] convention, do you have a more favorable or a less favorable opinion of the [Democratic/Republican] Party?

 

More favorable

Less favorable

 

%

%

2016 Democratic convention

44

42

2016 Republican convention

35

52

Gallup, July 23-24 and July 29-30, 2016

The results are based on Gallup polls conducted in the days immediately after each party's convention -- the Republican convention in Cleveland from July 18-21 and the Democratic convention in Philadelphia from July 25-28.

Americans' assessments of the effect of the conventions on their image of each party largely mirror their assessments of how the convention will affect their vote in the 2016 election. By 45% to 41%, Americans say they are more rather than less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton based on what they saw or read about the Democratic convention. In contrast, many more Americans said they were less likely (51%) rather than more likely (36%) to vote for Donald Trump as a result of what they saw or read about the Republican convention.

Gallup has asked this question about Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1984, with the exceptions of the 1984 and 1992 Republican conventions. The 2016 Republican convention is the first after which a greater percentage of Americans have said they are "less likely" rather than "more likely" to vote for the party's presidential nominee.

Likelihood to Vote for Party's Presidential Candidate Based on What You Saw/Read About Party's Convention

Based on national adults

 

More likely

Less likely

No difference/No opinion

Net (more likely minus less likely)

 

%

%

%

pct. pts.

Democratic conventions

 

2016

45

41

14

+4

2012

43

38

20

+5

2008

43

29

27

+14

2004

44

30

26

+14

2000

43

28

29

+15

1996

44

29

27

+15

1992

60

15

25

+45

1988

56

21

23

+35

1984

45

29

26

+16

Republican conventions

 

2016

36

51

14

-15

2012

40

38

21

+2

2008

43

38

19

+5

2004

41

38

21

+3

2000

44

27

29

+17

1996

45

34

21

+11

1992

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1988

43

27

30

+16

1984

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Gallup

Since 1984, an average of 45% of Americans have said they are more likely to vote for a party's presidential candidate after the party's convention; thus, the Democratic Party's 2016 convention is right at the historical norm. At the same time, the 41% of Americans who say they are less likely to vote for Clinton after the party's convention is among the highest Gallup has measured, while the 14% who said the convention made no difference in their vote or who had no opinion is historically low.

Americans' ratings of recent conventions have tended to be less positive than those of 2000 and before, likely because of the greater party polarization in Americans' attitudes. That is borne out in looking at the results by political party identification of the 2016, 2008 and 2000 conventions -- all years in which an incumbent was not running in either party. In recent election years, supporters of each party have been more inclined to react positively to their own party's convention, but also much more likely to react negatively to the other party's convention. Fewer in each party now say the other party's convention made no difference to their vote or offer no opinion at all.

Likelihood to Vote for Party's Presidential Candidate Based on What You Saw/Read About Party Convention, by Political Party

Based on national adults

 

More likely

Less likely

No difference/ No opinion

Net (more likely minus less likely)

 

%

%

%

pct. pts.

2016 Democratic convention

 

Democrats/Democratic leaners

81

9

10

+72

Republicans/Republican leaners

8

82

10

-74

2016 Republican convention

 

Democrats/Democratic leaners

2

88

10

-86

Republicans/Republican leaners

73

13

14

+60

2008 Democratic convention

 

Democrats/Democratic leaners

74

8

18

+66

Republicans/Republican leaners

8

59

33

-51

2008 Republican convention

 

Democrats/Democratic leaners

11

70

19

-59

Republicans/Republican leaners

78

7

15

+71

2000 Democratic convention

 

Democrats/Democratic leaners

67

9

24

+58

Republicans/Republican leaners

15

53

32

-38

2000 Republican convention

 

Democrats/Democratic leaners

22

49

29

-27

Republicans/Republican leaners

67

8

25

+59

Gallup

Clinton's Speech Rated More Positively Than Trump's

The most anticipated event at modern political conventions is the presidential nominee's acceptance speech. Overall, 44% of Americans gave Clinton's speech a positive rating, saying it was either "excellent" or "good." That is significantly higher than the 35% who rated Trump's speech positively. In fact, as many Americans rated Trump's speech negatively, saying it was "poor" or "terrible."

Trump's speech was rated less positively than any Gallup has asked about since 1996. The positive rating of Clinton's speech is slightly below the historical average of 47%, but similar to Barack Obama's 2012 acceptance speech. Obama's 2008 speech got the highest percentage of positive ratings at 58%.

Ratings of Presidential Nominee Acceptance Speeches

From what you have heard or read, how would you rate [nominee's] acceptance speech at the [Democratic/Republican] convention on Thursday night, as -- excellent, good, just OK, poor or terrible?

 

Excellent/Good

Just OK

Poor/Terrible

Didn't see/No opinion

 

%

%

%

%

2016, Clinton

44

17

20

19

2016, Trump

35

18

36

11

2012, Obama

43

17

16

23

2012, Romney

38

21

16

26

2008, McCain

47

22

12

19

2008, Obama

58

15

7

20

2004, Bush

49

19

8

24

2004, Kerry

52

19

9

20

2000, Gore

51

18

6

24

2000, Bush

51

17

4

28

1996, Clinton

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1996, Dole

52

21

7

20

Gallup

Implications

The Democratic Party's convention left a considerably more positive impression on the American public than the Republican Party's convention. That is likely to aid the Democratic Party in its quest to win a third consecutive presidential election. However, the Democratic convention's historically average ratings are beneficial only in contrast to the Republicans' historically negative ratings, meaning both parties could have done a better job of appealing to Americans this year.

In the short term, it appears the Democratic Party will leave the convention phase better off than before it began. Gallup tracking finds Clinton's post-convention favorable rating at 44%, up six percentage points from mid-July. That is much higher than Trump's 32% favorable rating in the days after the Democratic convention. Also, Obama's job approval rating is now up to 54%, tied for the highest it has been since early 2013.

In the weeks ahead, both Clinton's favorable rating and Obama's approval rating could fall back somewhat as the campaign moves further away from the Democratic convention. But as of now, these key election indicators suggest the Democrats are in a stronger electoral position than the Republicans, and Trump and the GOP have a little more than three months left to try to change that.

From http://www.gallup.com/poll/194084/americans-positive-democratic-gop-convention.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication