Cox Automotive Forecast: March New-Vehicle Sales To Increase 4.5% From Year Ago Levels As U.S. Market Continues to Normalize

Staff Report From Georgia CEO

Friday, March 29th, 2024

Cox Automotive forecasts U.S. new-vehicle sales in Q1 will increase 5.6% year over year and reach 3.8 million units. The year-over-year increase in Q1 sales suggests that the new-vehicle market in the U.S. continues to recover slowly from the 10-year low – 13.8 million total sales – recorded in 2022.

Sales volume in March, when announced early next month, is expected to show gains over March 2023 and 2022 as the market continues to expand. The forecast of 1.45 million sales in March would be an increase of 4.5% year over year and close to the 10-year average for the month, historically one of the strongest sales months in a given year.

Healthy sales are being supported by significantly improved new-vehicle inventory levels. At the beginning of March, the total supply of available new vehicles was up more than 50% compared to last March, according to the latest vAuto Live Market View data.

The March seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or selling pace, is expected to finish near 15.5 million, up 0.6 million over last year's pace but down slightly from February's surprisingly strong 15.8 million level. This March has 27 sales days, the same as last year but two more than last month. Through Q1, the SAAR is forecast at 15.4 million, up from 15.0 million, or a 2.7% increase, compared to Q1 2023.

Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said: "Since April 2023, the SAAR has experienced some large swings with an average at the mid-15 million level. That sales pace is expected to continue this month as well. However, March weather was unseasonably warm this year, which could give sales an extra boost."

March 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

 

Sales Forecast1

Market Share

Segment

Mar-24

Mar-23

Feb-24

YOY%

MOM%

Mar-24

Feb-24

MOM

Mid-Size Car

85,000

86,789

75,440

-2.1 %

12.7 %

5.9 %

6.0 %

-0.1 %

Compact Car

100,000

89,475

92,635

11.8 %

8.0 %

6.9 %

7.3 %

-0.4 %

Compact SUV/Crossover

265,000

230,300

242,471

15.1 %

9.3 %

18.3 %

19.2 %

-0.9 %

Full-Size Pickup Truck

180,000

185,066

159,508

-2.7 %

12.8 %

12.5 %

12.6 %

-0.2 %

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

245,000

241,899

208,236

1.3 %

17.7 %

17.0 %

16.5 %

0.5 %

Grand Total2

1,445,000

1,382,879

1,263,259

4.5 %

14.4 %

     

Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
2 Total includes segments not shown  

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.