The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.2% in June 2026 to 99.1 (2016=100), following a 0.1% increase in May. However, the LEI is down by only 0.3% over the first half of 2026, a much smaller rate of decline than its 1.1% contraction over the second half of 2025.

"In June, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined and partially reversed gains registered in May and April," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories. Despite the recent decline, the LEI's six- and twelve-month growth rates, while negative, were stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y GDP growth for 2026."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in June 2026 to 114.6 (2016=100), after a similar increase of 0.2% in May. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.4% over H1 2026, slightly more than the 0.3% growth rate over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI made positive contributions in June.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US was unchanged at 120.5 (2016=100) in June 2026, after a 0.1% decline in May. However, the LAG's six-month change was firmly in