The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 99.5 (2016=100), after an upwardly revised decline of 0.1% in June. As a result, the LEI's six-month growth rate turned positive, to an increase of 0.2% between January and July 2026, a sharp reversal from its 1.3% contraction over the previous six months.

"The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI's six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead. The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 114.8 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in June. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.5% over the six months between January and July 2026, after remaining flat over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI, except for payroll employment, made positive contributions last month.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 120.4 (2016=100). Despite the month-over-month increase, the level of the index was still below the preliminary June level of 120.5 (2016=100), due to downward revisions from April to June 2026. The LAG was up 0.8% between January and July 2026, doubling its 0.4% growth over the prior six months (July 2025 to January 2026).